Predictor. The Decentralised Prediction Markets on… | by Karthikeyan Ramachandran | Apr, 2022

Predictor
  1. To become Universal Forecasting Tool so that it is the preferred platform for any or all kinds of predictions
  2. To provide a hedging market for all kinds of risks where information is publicly available such as flight delays, weather etc.
  3. To enable all users to monetize knowledge and gain a reputation
  4. To create awareness of Social and Environmental Issues such as climate changes incidents, temperatures, carbon prices, covid counts etc
  5. To provide unbiased value discovery.
  • Prediction Market — Pari-mutuel Mechanism without any AMM.
  • Trustless Oracle — Schelling Points 2

Creators:

Predictors:

Reporters:

Proposal Stage

  1. A Creator creates a prediction
  2. Admin can cancel a particular prediction if details are incomplete or misleading
  3. If there is no issue, prediction is opened for trading

Prediction Stage

  1. Predictors pick their favourite option for the given prediction by buying the corresponding tokens (by paying tez)
  2. All the tez get accumulated in the pool.
  3. After the scheduled the prediction is closed. The odds of each option are calculated.

Trading Stage

  1. The Predictors can trade their tokens in any DEX any time before or after the prediction is closed.
  2. The prediction event occurs and the results are known.

Reporting Stage

  1. Reporters report the result by voting on the options in the Oracle.
  2. The option with supermajority is declared the final result

Redemption Stage

  1. Predictors with the winning tokens redeem their tokens for tez.
  1. Integrating with Stablecoin ( Plenty USD, USDtz, kUSD) — Tezos based stablecoins
  2. Integrating with oracle for market data. So any prediction on market data will be resolved by the oracle itself.
  3. Introduce the staking for Reporters.
  4. Option to create scalar predictions
  5. Add Reputation only Prediction Contracts. Here only non-tradable/ non — transferable tokens instead of tez will be provided to the winners which will represent their reputation.
  6. Closed group Predictions — an option for people and organisations to bet on an event only among their acquaintances or clients. The people outside the group are restricted from trading the same contract. It will enable the Prediction as a Service concept for existing offline bookmakers who want to move their work on blockchain.



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